✓ QUALIFIED · +4.5% EV
Dodgers ML vs. PadresPICK #4,318 · LOGGED 6:12 PM UTC
−132Best price
59.4%Model prob
+4.5%Edge (EV)
Best price at DraftKings — 5-book consensus, sharp-anchored
STAKE: 1.2% BANKROLL
☝️ In plain English: we think the Dodgers win this game about 6 times out of 10. The price at DraftKings only "charges" you for 5.7 wins out of 10 — because they haven't updated their line yet. That gap is free value, and it usually disappears within the hour.
By the numbers
LAD vs SD starter
.368
Last 10 games
8–2
SD last 10
4–6
SD bullpen rest
7.1 IP thrown yesterday
What the model saw
Batter vs. pitcher: Dodgers hitters are 14-for-38 (.368) lifetime against tonight's San Diego starter, with 4 home runs — several of their bats simply see this guy well
Fatigue edge: the Padres bullpen threw 7.1 innings yesterday, so their manager will stretch a tired starter longer than he wants to
The stale line: the rest of the market moved LAD from −146 to −158 today. DraftKings is still at −132 — that's the entire reason this is a pick
What could void it: San Diego's lineup card isn't final. If their injured #2 hitter returns, we'll re-price and alert you before first pitch
Injuries & lineups
Model weight: HighINDodgers: full projected lineup posted — no absences that move the number
OUTPadres #2 hitter (wrist, day-to-day) — not in tonight's posted lineup. Worth ~9¢ on the moneyline, and the market has already priced most of it
GTDPadres CF — game-time decision. If he sits, our edge grows; if he plays, the pick still clears the bar
Auto re-price: lineup cards are re-scanned every 5 minutes until first pitch. If anything changes the math, you get an alert before the game — not an excuse after it.
Recent form (underlying, not just record)
Model weight: HighLAD last 10
8–2 · +21 run diff
LAD team OPS (L15)
.791
SD last 10
4–6 · −8 run diff
SD bullpen ERA (L7)
5.10
We weight run differential and OPS over raw wins — records lie in small samples, underlying production doesn't.
Head-to-head — season series
Model weight: LowSeason series
LAD 3–1
Avg total in series
8.2 runs
Why low weight: different starting pitchers in 3 of the 4 meetings. Team-level head-to-head is mostly noise — the batter-vs-pitcher splits in "Why this pick" are the part of history that actually predicts.
Season standings
Model weight: LowDodgers
52–31 · 1st NL West
Padres
43–40 · 3rd NL West
Why low weight: the standings are already inside every book's price — they're context for you, not an edge for us. We only get paid on what the market hasn't priced yet.
Line movement since open
Model weight: High| Book | Open | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | −149 | −164 | ▲ toward LAD |
| FanDuel | −148 | −158 | ▲ toward LAD |
| BetMGM | −146 | −160 | ▲ toward LAD |
| Caesars | −145 | −156 | ▲ toward LAD |
| DraftKings | −135 | −132 | ● hasn't moved — stale |
This is the pick: four books (including the sharpest one) moved toward the Dodgers today. DraftKings didn't. When one book falls asleep while the market moves, that's not our opinion beating theirs — that's their own peers saying the price is wrong.